On the Campaign Trail with Ed Tibbetts

Charlie Cook, the respected political analyst for National Journal, changed his rating on Iowa’s 1st District congressional seat.

It’s one of five seats that Cook’s deemed more competitive since Saturday’s health care reform vote, according to USA Today.

The report moved off the “solid” list, meaning a sure bet that Braley would hold it, to the “likely Democratic” column.

From the report:

Braley’s eastern Iowa district isn’t a place where a vote for Democrats’ health care bill represents a politically unpopular move. But that hasn’t stopped Republicans from talking about this district in recent months, as personally wealthy businessman and Dubuque GOP official Rod Blum gears up for a race. Braley is a strong campaigner and fundraiser who should be fairly safe, but Blum’s spending capability and the larger political environment make the contest worth a peripheral look.

Incidentally, I met Blum at this week’s Scott County GOP fundraiser. He said he’ll make an announcement soon.

I hadn’t planned on blogging tonight’s Scott County GOP fundraiser, but here’s a bit of local political news:

Ross Paustian, the Walcott farmer who lost a high-profile race to state Rep. Elesha Gayman, D-Davenport, is going to give it another go, according to Brian Kennedy, who is the emcee at the dinner.

You may recall the Paustian/Gayman race last year turned nasty toward the end. We’ll see if there’s a repeat next year.

Democrat Roxanne Conlin jumped into the U.S. Senate race with both feet today. She not only filed papers with the Federal Election Commission, but also unveiled a 2 minute web video that seeks to introduce her to the electorate.

It’s heavy on biography, particularly pointing to meager beginnings as a child and at the start of her married life.

Now, of course, Conlin is a successful attorney.

The video hits on what are likely to be themes of her campaign. Taking on special interests. Washington, D.C. has lost its way and forgotten real people. There’s also an emphasis on creating jobs and on renewable energy.

Interesting: No mention of her groundbreaking 1982 run for Iowa governor.

Conlin was the first woman to be nominated by a major party. She lost to Republican Terry Branstad.

(UPDATE: 11:59 a.m.) Republican Party of Iowa Chairman Matt Strawn responds to Conlin’s announcement.

“Roxanne is out of touch with Iowa. She rails on special interests, yet she was president of one of the biggest special interests known – the American Trial Lawyers Association. As a trial lawyer, Roxanne got the lion’s share of $75 million from a class-action lawsuit that left regular Iowans with $16-29 apiece, according to news reports.  Instead of fighting against special interests, the reality is, Roxanne Conlin is one of them. Roxanne thinks you can just sue your way to economic prosperity, but Iowans know that’s just not the case.  We need solutions to cure our economic woes, not lawsuits.”

The Iowa Republican web site puts a spotlight on Scott County politics while promoting the local GOP’s fundraising dinner Nov. 10.

The article notes the party’s loss of legislative seats and shift in registrations to the Democrats over the past 10 years, part of a trend in eastern Iowa. But it says ex-congressional candidate and former state party chair, Brian Kennedy, could be planting the seeds to recovery by ramping up fundraising activities.

The article is here.

Republicans do feel enthusiasm here, like across the rest of the country. But lately, the losses have piled up.

The upside of that is there are more targets.

Next year, there will likely be another hard-fought battle for Democratic state Rep. Elesha Gayman’s west Scott County seat. Also, first-term incumbent Phyllis Thede, a Bettendorf Democrat, will likely be targeted. Her seat had been in Republican hands for years, and the GOP would like to take it back.

Republicans are not without their own troubles.

State Sen. David Hartsuch, of Bettendorf, is up for re-election. Democrats would dearly love to knock him off, and this will be the first time he’ll be on a ballot since he upset Maggie Tinsman in a GOP primary but then struggled to win the general election, narrowly pulling out a 400 vote win in a decidedly right-leaning Senate district.

I’m also hearing that Hartsuch is in for a primary challenge.

It’s still early, so there could be other targeted races, too.

UPDATE: (1:50 p.m.) Bleeding Heartland, a liberal blog, has its own take on Scott County’s political drift. You can find the post here.

Its message: The GOP has abandoned moderates, and no amount of focus on the economy (part of the Iowa Republican’s piece) will change that.

“Until the Republican Party makes room in the tent for people who admire Jim Leach, they won’t regain a dominant position in places like Scott County,” Bleeding Heartland says.